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Deepak Verma
International weight problems drug gross sales are prone to hit ~$30B by 2020, in keeping with Cowen, with Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) prone to dominate the market.
However the Wall Avenue agency additionally tells traders to not solely take note of different pharmas with weight reduction drug within the pipeline, however keep watch over firms growing medical gadgets and digital therapeutics to make in-roads within the weight problems therapy house.
In a Nov. 18 report, Cowen mentioned that therapy for weight problems is barely in its fledgling state. Solely 30% of overweight people ever obtain a prognosis and therapy charges are solely within the low single digits. The agency added that drug therapy is barely utilized by simply 1%-2% of overweight sufferers.
In a June survey, Cowen discovered that weight problems specialists mentioned they view medicine as acceptable for ~60% of their sufferers. That compares to twenty% for surgical intervention. A survey of physicians and payors carried out in October by Cowen discovered that they agree that the proportion of non-diabetic overweight sufferers on weight-loss medicine is about to extend considerably.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Lilly (LLY) are looking for to extend weight problems medicine utilization, and quickly, with their respective GLP-1 receptor agonists, Wegovy (semaglutide) and tirzepatide. Cowen tasks Wegovy gross sales of over $7B and over tirzepatide gross sales of greater than $11B in 2030. Tirzepatide is at the moment accepted as a sort 2 diabetes remedy below the identify Mounjaro however Lilly (LLY) is pursuing the drug for weight reduction in part 3.
Cowen can be bullish on Novo (NVO) candidate CagriSema, a mix of semaglutide and a novel amylin analogue, cagrilintide. The pharma launched constructive part 2 ends in August exhibiting reductions in blood sugar degree and weight. Part 3 is slated to start out in 2023. Cowen sees $5B in CagriSema gross sales if information continues to carry out nicely.
Within the pipeline, Lilly (LLY) has the GLP-1R/GIPR/GCGR triple agonist retatrutide in part 2 with an information replace anticipated in January 2023. Different giant pharmas with weight problems candidates in mid-to-late stage growth embody Merck’s (NYSE:MRK) GLP-1R/GCGR twin agonist efinopegdutide (information replace additionally in January), Pfizer’s (NYSE:PFE) oral therapy danuglipron, AltImmune’s (ALT) GLP-1R/GCGR twin agonist pemvidutide (ALT-801 (information replace June 2023), and AstraZeneca’s (AZN) GLP-1/GCGR twin agonist cotadutide (replace July 2025).
On this space, Cowen sees Apollo Endoscopy (APEN) as its prime choose in weight problems. The corporate’s endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty (ESG) process makes use of its proprietary OverStitch endoscopic suturing system. The corporate is growing the OverStitch NXT single channel endoscopic suturing system that’s mentioned to have enhanced efficiency traits making it simpler to make use of, increasing entry to the expertise.
Cowen additionally touted Apollo’s (APEN) space-occupying system, the Orbera Intragastric Balloon System, calling it “the main gastric balloon worldwide.” The agency added the system can result in 10% weight reduction.
Cowen highlighed ReShape Lifesciences (RSLS) which makes Obalon, an intragastric balloon that’s full of fuel. In a single examine, Obalon led to a median 4.2% weight reduction at 12 weeks, making it inferior to different balloons.
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