Subsequent 12 months the U.S. will expertise a light recession with the fed funds price peaking at 5.25% and the Fed ultimately chopping in December, in line with BofA strategists.
Shares will transfer sideways and the S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) will finish 2023 at 4,000, Michael Hartnett and group wrote in a notice.
“We’re lengthy US authorities bonds in H1” with “arduous touchdown & credit score occasion dangers underpriced,” Hartnett added, sustaining optimum S&P entry factors of “nibble” at 3,600, “chunk” and three,300 and “gorge” at 3,000.
Listed below are their prime 10 trades for 2023:
Lengthy 30-year Treasury (US30Y) (TBT) (TLT) “on recession, unemployment, Fed cuts late’23, historical past (US Treasury returns have by no means fallen for 3 consecutive years).”
Yield curve steepeners “as US yield curve at all times steepens as recession begins and markets anticipate Fed flipping from hikes to cuts.”
Quick U.S. greenback (USDOLLAR) (DXY) (UDN), lengthy rising markets belongings (EEM) (SPEM) (FEM), lengthy EM distressed bonds lengthy Korean received on China reopening, lengthy Mexican peso on “nearshoring.”
Lengthy China shares (MCHI) (FXI) as “COVID reopening was v bullish for US/EAFE shares, China has excessive ‘extra financial savings’ and China shares stay v contrarian lengthy commerce.”
Lengthy gold (XAU:USD) (GLD) (IAU), lengthy copper (HG1:COM) (COPX) on “US$ peak, China reopening, metallic stock shortages, power transition acceleration, want in 2020s for inflation hedges.”
Barbell credit score with “lengthy credit score too consensus in ’23, we barbell lengthy IG tech bonds (>5% yield + sturdy steadiness sheets) with distressed HY debt in Asia (17% yield).”
Lengthy world industrials (XLI) and small caps (IWM) on “secular management shift in 2020s from deflation to inflation belongings, pushed by globalization to localization, financial to fiscal extra, inequality to inclusion and so forth simply starting; capex set to be new macro bull story.”
Quick U.S. tech (XLK) (XLC). The “outdated management, nonetheless over-owned, period of QE is now not, period of globalization now not, plus peak penetration and regulation dangers.”
Quick personal fairness (PSP) with “redemption dangers given shadow banking exposures to housing & credit score dangers.”
Lengthy EU banks, quick Canadian, Australian, New Zealand and Swedish banks. “EU fiscal stimulus to wean Eurozone off Russian power dependence, Chinese language export dependence, US navy dependence vs actual property market busts in Canada/Australia/NZ/Sweden.”