Are the Vikings for actual? Their 6-1 report makes it exhausting to disclaim – Minnesota Vikings Weblog

EAGAN, Minn. — How lengthy can we ask if a crew is “for actual” earlier than its report leaves little question? The Minnesota Vikings are approaching that territory after enhancing to 6-1 with a 34-26 victory Sunday over the Arizona Cardinals.

No matter the way it’s occurring, or in opposition to whom, the Vikings now have a greater report than all however two groups within the NFL. They’ve a four-game lead within the loss column over their NFC North division rivals, with one victory apiece in opposition to every of them, and ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index offers them a 95.3% probability to make the playoffs. In a league with 20 groups which have between three and 5 wins, the Vikings are one in every of a handful who’ve mathematically separated themselves through the first two months of the 2022 season.

Whether or not anybody has seen, or cares, is sort of irrelevant at this level.

“I simply hate that persons are nonetheless not speaking about us,” linebacker Za’Darius Smith stated. “But it surely’s OK. We’ll proceed to be the underdogs and maintain going to work each day to get higher.”

The reality is the Vikings have solely been FPI underdogs in two of their seven video games and not one of the previous 5. FPI favors them in six of their ultimate 10 video games, a path that would depart them 12-5 this season. However like many successful groups, there are causes to query whether or not they can preserve their present tempo.

They’ve gained 5 one-possession video games with out a loss by means of seven video games, a path so uncommon it has occurred solely 4 different instances previously 20 years across the NFL. They’ve overcome fourth-quarter deficits in three of their wins. Quarterback Kirk Cousins’ 51.4 Whole QBR ranks No. 16 within the NFL and under all however one of many NFL’s eight division leaders. Their protection has allowed the NFL’s seventh-worst QBR (54.4).The Vikings have been largely injury-free however are strolling a tightrope with seven starters aged 30 or older, in addition to a shallow rotation that options solely 28 gamers getting common offensive or defensive snaps.

However the Vikings discovering methods to win has lined for that and constructed a type of playoff fairness. Of the 25 groups to start out 6-1 because the 2002 divisional realignment, 20 have made the playoffs. And no 6-1 crew has missed the playoffs because the 2020 playoff enlargement to 14 groups.

So even when the Vikings regress towards the NFL imply, a not-inconceivable route given upcoming video games in opposition to the Buffalo Payments (7-1) and Dallas Cowboys (6-2) over the following three weeks, they will nonetheless have a transparent path to the postseason. Even when they fall two video games again of their FPI per-game expectations, and lose six of their ultimate 10 video games, they will nonetheless end with a 10-7 report. Based mostly on the present state of the NFC North, which may properly be sufficient for a division title.

For that motive, veteran gamers are preaching the importance of what is already occurred. Cousins, in 10 earlier seasons, has by no means been 6-1. His groups have had successful information after seven video games solely twice. Cornerback Patrick Peterson has extra typically been 1-6 (twice) than 6-1 or higher (as soon as) in 11 earlier seasons.

“You simply need to take in these moments,” Peterson stated, “and take in these recollections. As a result of … they do not come round fairly often. That is why I inform these guys time in and day out: Benefit from the second. Embrace the second and belief the method as properly.”

Talking Monday, defensive sort out Harrison Phillips bemoaned “what number of instances in historical past you’ll be able to return and take a look at unbelievable begins to a season that got here up brief.” They are not as frequent as Phillips would possibly guess, however it will be comprehensible for longtime Minnesota followers to really feel a bit apprehensive.

One of many 5 groups since 2002 that missed the playoffs after a 6-1 begin was the 2003 Vikings. That group opened the season with six consecutive wins earlier than dropping its subsequent 4 after which two of its subsequent 5.

Nonetheless, the 2003 Vikings entered the ultimate week of the common season with a 9-6 report and wanted solely to win on the 3-12 Cardinals to clinch an NFC North title and playoff berth. In a legendary end, Cardinals quarterback Josh McCown threw a 28-yard landing go to receiver Nate Poole on the sport’s ultimate play to win, 18-17.

However that is the sort of collapse it will possible take for the Vikings to overlook the playoffs. A extra optimistic view of historical past would observe that of the 5 earlier groups to do what the Vikings have completed to this point in 2022 — win 5 one-possession video games over its first seven with out a loss — three made the Tremendous Bowl: the 2015 Denver Broncos, the 2006 Indianapolis Colts and the 2003 Carolina Panthers.

Maybe most significantly, the Vikings’ veteran roster offers a default understanding of the uncommon nature of the crew’s present state.

“And if you do not know what it appears to be like like,” Peterson stated, “observe me. As a result of I’ll present you power, ardour and a want to go on the market and need to win [games]. And everyone else observe.”